Aftershock Catalogs for seismic regions of Russia
Mainshocks and their afetrshocks were marked using software by V.B. Smirnov which implements declustering method of Molchan and Dmitrieva.
Data for Kamchtka and Kuril Islands taken from Catalog of Earthquakes for Kamchatka and Commander Islands Catalog of Earthquakes for Kamchatka and Commander Islands (1962 — present time), made by Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center of the Unified Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Datа for Lake Baikal and Transbaikalia takern from Main Catalog made by Baikal Branch of the Federal Research Center of the Unified Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Data for Caucasus taken from Earthquake catalog of Caucasus since historic times till the present made by Gabsatarova I.P. and Borisov P.A. from the Federal Research Center of the Unified Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences and supprted by this project.
ESTIMATING AN AREA WHERE STRONG AFTERSHOCKS ARE EXPECTED
S.V. Baranov, P.N. Shebalin
Based on the optimal models we developed web based software for forecasting space distribution of strong aftershock in quasi real time. The forecast is available in this site for registered users.
EXPRESS ESTIMATING STRONG AFTERSHOCK HAZARD
P. N. Shebalin, S.V. Baranov
proportionality factors for estimating aftershock number with the magnitude greater than the given threshold based in the data for the first 12 hours after the mainshock. We provided simply memorable formulas for estimating the aftershock number expected during 5 days and a month after the mainshock. We obtained empirical relations for estimating the biggest aftershock magnitude expected during a year after the mainshock and time of the last aftershock with M5.2+ as well. In press (Volcanology and Seismology). After the paper is published it’ll be available in the Publication section.