Scientific novelty of the problem in theoretical terms is the sharing of statistical and phenomenological approaches to assess the time-dependent seismic hazard. The corresponding unit was recently developed in the framework of RFBR 14-05-00541, and in cooperation with European colleagues and called the method of «Differential Probability Gain, DPG» (Shebalin et al., 2014). As part of the probabilistic estimates the new system will be based on the latest achievements in this field, obtained in the framework of RFBR 13-05-00148 (project manager Baranov S.V., the participant of the proposed project). As a phenomenological part, mostly already known from literature factors that increase or reduce the likelihood of strong events, will be studied in the framework of the project. Joint analysis and combining the probabilistic model with non-probabilistic factors using the DPG method, will be a pioneer application in seismic hazard estimation. Another important aspect of the novelty of the problem is the transition from probabilistic assessment toward criteria for operational measures to reduce damage. The determination of the criteria for the specific post-earthquake conditions is one of the central parts of the proposed project.
In practical terms, scientific novelty consists in the creation of an automated information system for seismic hazard assessment after a major earthquake, which has no analogues in the world. Already existing theoretical tools are sufficient to ensure the successful operation of the automated system and produce effective evaluations. Involvement in this project new data for comprehensive analysis and development of methods of data processing, as well as the establishment of criteria for operational decisions are aimed at increasing the accuracy and reliability of the seismic hazard assessment and reducing the damage caused by earthquakes. The implementation of this part of the project is guaranteed by the composition of the research group, which includes experts in the analysis of relevant data. It is expected that an automated system will be installed in the geophysical monitoring centers of the Geophysical Service (GS), RAS; the research team includes a considerable number of employees of GS RAS, who have extensive experience in specific circumstances.